Monthly Update

For those of you who enjoy raw data and statistics, please click on the month/year to see the chart of data for that month.  Underlined words will take you to an interesting link such as a news article.

March 2012

Continuing the trend, inventory has decreased again, shorts sales are a mere 11% of our inventory county wide and properties are selling faster than they are being listed!  With interest rates still so low, it's a great time to swap homes with both buyers and sellers having lots of great reasons to move!  Year to date, we are 12% better than last year in number of sales.  Pricing seems to be holding at this point even with inventory so low. 

Here are some recent articles supporting my optimistic view!

Wall Street Journal 04/02/2012

The Real Deal 03/31/2012

February 2012

Signs are still pointing in the right direction for our local real estate market!  Inventory is trending down, sales are up and we are experiencing multiple offer situations on the best homes in the market.  All of this is great news for sellers!  Normallly, our market gets a bump up in the Spring.  Snowbirds are visiting and buying for next season, families want to move before Summer heat and School starts again, and the weather is perfect for home shopping.  If our current trends continue through Summer and Fall, then we can feel pretty safe that we are in an actual recovery.

Want to increase your home's value? Here's an idea for you! 

Buyers should also feel great about buying now.  Interest rates are so great right now that it's almost riduculous.  If we are in recovery, then buyers will start to feel more confident that when they buy a home, it won't be a losing proposition.  The best time for a buyer to buy a home is at the beginning of a recovery.  That way, they maximize their investment dollars since they end up buying at the lowest price in the cycle.  Can the typical family afford a home?  They can now!

It will be exciting to watch what happens, but personally, I'm as busy as I've been in 3 years!

I thought this article on The Bridges by GL Homes is exciting news for all of us!

January 2012

We might be into the recovery now or at least at the bottom of the slide!  How long will it take?  Maybe a long time, experts say.  An article from the Sun Sentinel describes some current indications that we may be set for "bottoming out" this year.  Many indicators are pointing in that direction:  inventory levels are down more than 30% over the last 18 months, construction starts are up, investors are shopping for good deals, and foreign home buyers are purchasing, to name just a few.

But, it isn't all sunshine and roses!  Home buyers are still confused.  Many just don't know what decisions to make about buying a home today.  One client told me that he wasn't sure he should put a lot of money into buying a home in the current market conditions.  He is currently renting instead.  Many sellers feel that if they wait until next year, prices will rise enough for them to cut losses they would have to take if they sold this year.

The local market will most likely take 5 to 10 years to "recover" sufficiently for those who purchased newer homes in 2005 and 2006 to "break even".  Only time will tell!

December 2011

November 2011

October 2011

We are not experiencing a full blown recovery yet, but inventory is down, which is a great sign. Another great sign is that interest rates are still very low and lenders are lending.

Our main problem now could be consumer confusion. If you are nodding your head as you read this, then you already know what I mean. If not, consider that no one really has an idea of when the Florida market will recover. Some say 1 year, some 5 and some much more. Buyers don't know whether to rent for a while longer to buy at the bottom of the market or buy now and assume the tax credits will cover the difference. Sellers want to get the most out of their properties so they want to wait until the market improves if they can. There is a basic disconnect between sellers' prices and what buyers want to pay. This is mainly because buyers want to "market proof" their purchase by buying at a price they think will insure them of not losing money should home pricing continue to decrease.

So, we still have a slowly decreasing market in our area, but with some harbingers of better things to come!

September 2011

August 2011

July 2011 

June 2011

Here is the newest update on our current market! We are definitely moving in the right direction: Inventory is still dropping and sales have held steady, with Boca Raton showing the highest number of sold properties for one month in over 2 years (414). Boynton is still showing a high percentage of short sales (21%), but in Boca and Delray, the numbers have dropped significantly. The county is still holding at 17% as it has for a long time.

Some analysts are saying that this is the bump up before the shadow inventory hits this fall. If the shadow inventory does hit, it will mean a significant jump in inventory and prices will fall again.

We are starting to see a lot of foreclosures come on the market but they are hard to track with our system. For example, our MLS is showing only 518 bank owned or foreclosed properties on the market today for Palm Beach County. I doubt this number as the number of short sales is 3065 right now.

So, if you are thinking of selling, now is a great time as families are still moving! Interest rates are still low, so buyers are getting great deals! Please remember me when someone asks you about real estate!

May 2011

I'm happy to say that the numbers this month are still going in the right direction! Comparing the last 2 year's sales for the month of May, we are way up! As sales go up, prices will follow - eventually! It normally takes years for prices to return to previous levels after a fall such as the one we've been experiencing. The good news for us all is that we are currently in a "normal" market. It is not on a meteoric rise, but it also doesn't seem to be falling! You may still see prices adjusting, though. This is mostly due to sellers' realizations that they can't sell their homes for what they were previously asking. Buyers are buying the best deals out there, but aren't looking to steal properties as much as when the prices were falling. With the current inventory sitting between 7 and 10 month's supply, we should see steady sales and an increase in buyer confidence. We'll keep watching and see what happens!

April 2011

Here are the statistics for this past month. Inventory continues to decline and sales are up! We are returning to a more normal market with about a 9 month inventory. If this trend continues long term, our market should shift and become more stable with SLOWLY rising prices. Analysts are still predicting a 5 year recovery period for prices to come near the highs for our area.

I thought it would be interesting to see the average and median sales prices for Palm Beach County for JUST last month:

March 2011

At last! Some BIG improvement! Don't get excited yet, but the volume of sales was WAY up last month. It was the best month of sales in over 2 years. I still think we have a long way to go but this kind of improvement is exciting!

Inventory in our county has been decreasing at about 1000 homes per month so far this year. At current absorption rates, last month's sales would make our market much more normal, with only a 7 month supply of homes on the market right now. If this continues long term, we should see the market start to turn around soon!

Stay tuned and stay well!

February 2011

Here are the statistics for this past month. Inventory seems to have taken a dip, which is great news for prospective home sellers! There are fewer short sales now than there have been for the last 2 years. Let's hope this trend continues until it affects our prices! For now, I am excited with the level of activity and the number of homes that are under contract.

January 2011

Welcome to the first Statistics of 2011! We are all hoping for a better year and, indeed, there are (small) signs of improvement. The number of short sales is down to only 16% of our overall market. This is a welcome development and if the trend continues, could be an early sign of moving in the right direction. Our number of sales year to date are up 22% which could be another beginning of a positive trend. Overall inventory is not dropping appreciably yet, though, so it is too early to tell.

We'll continue to watch and see if these trends are going the way we want and most importantly, if they are affecting pricing positively! All the best!

December 2010

Happy New Year! Out with the old and in with the new, right after a look at the year in review! Overall, our part of Florida performed pretty well compared with the news reports of other areas. We finished 12% better than 2009 in volume (number of sales). Prices took a small hit and analysts are saying it's not over. As interest rates rise, buying power erodes causing prices to fall slowly. I hope this New Year brings you many things you want and very little you don't!

November 2010

October 2010

Here are the current statistics. As you can see, the overall sales are still trending slightly downward in terms of actual number of homes sold. Prices seem to be holding fairly steady, with averages only fluctuating a tiny bit up or down each month for at least the last 8 months. Overall, we are still up 15% over last year, year to date, as we head into season. As many folks are saying that we have hit bottom for the time being, the mood in South Florida is optimistic that we will have a strong selling season to end the year! Let's all hope "they" are right!

As I like to give something positive when giving you all this bad news, here is the brightest news I've seen in a while! I hope you enjoy it!
The “dismal science” of economics typically focuses on “bad” news. We clearly face many significant challenges…no argument here. However, there are also many favorable developments taking place within the U.S. economy. This is our semi-annual update of “Happy Talk.” This Tea Leaf focuses ONLY on the “good” news…

• Economic output of the average American worker is 10 times that in China. Americans won 30 Nobel prizes in science and economics during the past five years. China?…just one.
• The value of a university education for American men and women in terms of future earnings power is nearly twice that of those in the average rich nation.
• Violent crime in the U.S. declined during 2009 for the third consecutive year. Reported property crime is at a 20-year low.
• Roughly half of the 50 states have added jobs during the most recent 12-month period. Formerly, every state had dealt with recession at some point during the past three years.
• Even as U.S. economic output (GDP) has climbed by more than 210% since 1970, aggregate emission of six principal air pollutants has plunged by 60%.
• The number of people who have quit smoking (46 million) now exceeds the number who still smoke (45 million). Less than 21% of adults smoke today, versus nearly half in the early 1950s.
• The U.S. Justice Department said the number of juvenile offenders declined 26% between 2000 and 2008.
• During the early 1960s, the five-year survival rate from cancer for Americans was one in three. Today it is two in three…continuing to climb…and the highest in the world.
• A recent poll of more than 12,000 global business figures conducted by the World Economic Forum ranked the U.S. as the world’s most competitive economy.
• The earnings gap between men and women has shrunk to a record low. Women on average earn 83% of what men earn, versus 76% a decade ago. Women with comparable education and experience earn comparable incomes.
• Conventional thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages have averaged 4.35% in recent weeks, the lowest level in nearly 50 years.
• For every dollar of U.S. economic output generated today, we burn less than half as much oil as 30 years ago.
• Women have drawn even with men in holding advanced degrees in the U.S.
  Men’s contribution to housework has doubled over the past 40 years, while their time spent on child care has tripled.
• U.S. traffic deaths per 100 million miles traveled during 2009 were the lowest on record.
• Roughly 47% of science and engineering degrees of those ages 25 to 39 are held by women, compared with 21% among those 65 and older.
• America produces more steel today than 30 years ago, despite the shuttered plants and slimmed-down work force.
• Energy-efficient appliances, cars, buildings, and other technologies that already exist could lower U.S. energy usage 30% by 2030.
• The worldwide income of women is expected to rise by nearly half during the next three years.
• An estimated 925 million people worldwide are undernourished, down from slightly more than one billion in 2009. Obviously, more needs to be done.
• The U.S. accounted for nearly one-third of the $1.1 trillion spent globally on research & development in the latest data available.
• Total U.S. workplace fatalities declined to their lowest point on record last year.
• Donations to charity were near the all-time high in 2009, with nearly $304 billion donated by individuals, foundations, and corporations. As a percentage of GDP, Americans gave twice as much as the next most charitable nation…England. In 1964, there were 15,000 U.S. foundations. By 2001, there were 61,000.
• Smoke-free laws in restaurants, bars, the workplace, etc. reduced the rate of heart attacks by an average of 17% after one year in those communities where the bans had been adopted.
• The Dow average has rebounded 64% since its low in early March 2009, with even larger gains by other measures.
• Roughly 80% of companies that suspended or reduced their 401(k) matches during the past 2-3 years plan to reinstate them this year or in 2011.
• The divorce rate dropped by one-third between 1981 and 2008, and is at its lowest level since 1970
• U.S. exports to China have risen roughly 24% per year since 2001, making China the fastest growing market for U.S. goods.
• The number of American volunteers rose 2.0% to 61.8 million in 2008. Among young adults, the number of volunteers rose 5.7%.
• Women now make up a record 46% of global MBA candidates. More than 70% of students surveyed name the U.S. as the top MBA study destination.
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up a modest 1.1% during the most recent 12-month period
• The number of people using public transportation hit a 52-year high during 2008.
• Alcohol-related traffic fatalities in the most recently reported year dropped by more than half versus 20 years ago.
• Average U.S. life expectancy has reached 78 years (men 75, women 80), the highest ever. This compares to 76 years in 1995, 68 years in 1950, and 47 years in 1900.
• Children’s deaths from unintentional injury have dropped by almost 40% since 1987. Bicycle deaths fell 60%, while firearms-related deaths fell 72%.
• Roughly 30% of trash was recycled or composted in the latest year, versus 16% in 1990
• A record 50.5 million foreigners visited the U.S. during 2008.
• Seat belt usage by Americans was at 82% in 2007, versus 49% in 1990 and 14% in 1983.
• A record 30% of men have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher, versus 29% of women, also a record. This compares to a combined 7.7% in 1960. A record 85% of adults over age 25 now have at least a high school diploma, versus 24% in 1940.
• Substantiated cases of childhood sexual abuse have fallen 49% since 1990. Physical abuse of children is down by 43%.
• U.S. teen pregnancy and birth rates plummeted to all-time lows in recent years, before a slight rise. The reasons? More widespread use of birth control, more work opportunities, and more girls who “just say no”.
• Flexible work schedules are now the norm for 43% of workers, up from 29% in 1992 and 13% in 1985. This allows greater flexibility for more people, especially those with children.
• Productivity of U.S. workers rose an average of 2.6% annually during the past 10 years, the largest gains in 40 years. Rising productivity is a long-term key to higher standards of living.
• The upward “mobility” of the typical American remains the greatest in the world. Why? The U.S. economy “rewards” the combination of hard work and educational achievement more than ever before…and more than any other country in the world.
• The U.S. role of dominance in the global economy during the past decade was as clear-cut as at any time since the 1950s.

This is from "The Tea Leaf," by Jeff Thredgold.  You can find the latest at: http://www.thredgold.com/tea-leaf/

September 2010

In the local market, Boca Raton and Boynton Beach are up over last month while Delray Beach is down. Compared to August last year, only Boca Raton shows any improvement and that is small! Median and average sales prices are still hovering in the same area.

The mood in the real estate community is optimistic now as we head into high season in South Florida, even though the numbers that came out last week showed that our area sales prices went down by about 12% over last year. Buyer activity is picking up as buyers head to town for their pre-season purchases.

I hope this news finds you as optimistic as we are! We wish you all the best as we head into the last third of the year!

August 2010

As we expected, we now see the dip in sales corresponding with the end of the April 30th end of the $8,000 tax credit. For Florida, it's the worst timing since this market normally gets a dip in production in July anyway. For August, things are already busier and over the next few months, we expect a flood of homes to enter the market. It is harder to guess what the buyers are thinking this season. Only time will tell!

After having our best month for properties closed in about 2 years in June (864) , July's number was disappointing at best! Overall, though, in Palm Beach County, the number of properties closed was the same for June and July. The median price for homes in our county also is inching down over the last few months.

In summary, this seems to be a normal July after the bubble. Let's hope for great things in the fall! Happy Back to school this month!

July 2010

As you can see, the trends continue in much the same vein. We still have 15 months inventory out there and still have 17% short sales. We are watching now for a decline in the number of closings after the June 30 deadline (now extended through September 30 for closings only). The average and median sold prices are still bouncing around and have not changed all that much. The good news is that we are still up 26% year to date over last year! Stay tuned as next month will be our biggest indicator yet of the impact of the $8,000 tax credit!

June 2010

As predicted, the government incentives had a large impact on our local market and this will continue through the June 30th deadline for closings with that program. Both prices and volume have gone down over the last few months. The number of sales are still up over last year but the gap is narrowing. Inventory is sliding slowly downward. In January, there were 8,779 homes on the market while today there are only 8,473. If this trend continues long term, it will mean more competition for each home. We still need a huge reduction in the number of homes on the market to absorb the current inventory! Short sales are still only 17% of our local market, which is essentially unchanged for the past 2 years. It is still taking a long time for homes to sell, on average, at 190 days.

May 2010

We are holding steady with the sales still 30% up over this time last year. As the tax incentive ended on April 30th, I would expect to see some decrease in the numbers after the June 30th closing deadline passes. Time will tell.

For the moment, we are looking great! Sales are up, inventory has slid a little bit. The current inventory at this rate would last less than a year! This is the best it's been in over a year. If you are thinking of selling, I would suggest doing it now. Spring is typically the time when the most homes sell in any market and, believe it or not, Florida is no different. Snowbirds want to buy before the season, families want to be in before school starts and generally, people feel most excited about moving before it gets too hot! In addition, prices usually fall in the fall.

I welcome comments and questions!

April 2010

March 2010

February 2010

January 2010

December 2009

November 2009

October 2009

September 2009

August 2009

July 2009

June 2009

May 2009

April 2009

March 2009

February 2009